There are few things like the surprises that emerge from a hard-fought election season. Thanks for stopping by. You can follow me through the week on Bluesky, Threads and X.
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1. STORY OF THE WEEK
Throw out your old conventional wisdom. The new rules of Rhode Island politics show how an insurgentes candidate can win if he has the right issue and the right approach, even while being exponentially outspent. “When you have a message that resonates with working people, working people will be there to support you,” David Morales told me in a September 2025 interview. He was exactly right. Providence Mayor Brett Smiley’s perceived advantages (incumbency, a bigger pot of campaign funds) melted away as their race intensified. Now, progressives are grinning and more-conservative Democrats are grimacing as Morales edges closer to City Hall. (The three-term state rep, who is set to turn 28 on Wednesday, is the prohibitive favorite in a November matchup with Republican Dave Talan.) The first primary ouster of a Providence mayor wasn’t the only surprising election story. In Pawtucket, Adam Greenman stunned longtime Mayor Don Grebien (who took office in 2011) with a quietly effective grassroots campaign. Another first-time candidate, Elaine Pelino, 72, came within a whisper of winning the GOP primary for governor, with meager campaign spending and an effort based largely on her Facebook appeal as a full-throated MAGA supporter of President Trump. Barring a change via a recount at the state Board of Elections on Monday, Aaron Guckian will be the GOP nominee for governor.
Then again, vis-a-vis Morales’ win, it’s not exactly surprising that people vote based on economic conditions. “It’s the economy, stupid,” became Bill Clinton’s memorable battlecry as he chased the White House during a bruising recession in the early ’90s. Rhode Island’s housing crisis has now merged with the national anxiety over affordability to become the top campaign theme for candidates as dissimilar as a democratic socialist (Morales) and a former corporate executive (Rhode Island’s Democratic nominee for governor). Which leads us to ….
2. THE RISE OF HELENA FOULKES
With 62.4% of the vote in Tuesday’s primary, Helena Foulkes got the biggest slice of a competitive Democratic primary vote in many years. Gov. Dan McKee won with 32.8% in 2022. Gina Raimondo made it through with 57.2% in 2018 and 42.1% in 2014. The backlash against McKee over the Washington Bridge helped carry Foulkes to victory in each of Rhode Island’s 39 communities. Yet even with that broad base of support, Foulkes is unremittingly on-message in expressing a conventional general election message of unity and togetherness. “This was all about all of us together,” she said during her victory speech outside Track 15 on Wednesday. Foulkes told supporters “all of you are my family, too.” She vowed to be a governor for all Rhode Islanders and to bring the change that the state needs (for more on this, see item #5). During an interview on MS NOW, Lawrence O’Donnell contrasted the way in which Foulkes reached out to more voters with the approach favored by President Trump. A day after her big win, Foulkes zipped out to Kentucky to mingle with new friends at a meeting of the Democratic Governors Association. DGA members were reportedly impressed with Foulkes’ margin of victory and how she seriously outraised an incumbent in campaign funds.
3. G(INA) FACTOR
Politics is about addition, so it’s unsurprising that Foulkes is seeking to expand her support heading into the Nov. 3 general election. Her messaging on unity is nonetheless quite similar to how Raimondo’s 2014 campaign, also led by Eric Hyers, emphasized togetherness, using a bluesy Canned Heat song (“Let’s Work Together”) as a theme, as Raimondo tried to put to the side many state union members’ bitterness over her signature 2011 pension overhaul. A number of key figures from Raimondo’s orbit, including Barbara Cottam, Jon Duffy and Cara Cromwell, were in the crowd as Foulkes’ celebrated her victory on Wednesday night. Former Raimondo aide Kevin Gallagher was spotted at the victory event for Democratic AG winner Kim Ahern, who was backed by the former governor. Don’t be surprised if former Raimondites, possibly including outgoing Providence Mayor Brett Smiley, wind up working in a Foulkes administration. Raimondo herself has signed on as a senior fellow at Brown’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs.
4. THE DEVIL IN THE DETAILS
After not taking questions from reporters at her victory event, Foulkes met with the media the next morning outside the Coffee Exchange in Providence. A lot of past candidates have presided over marginal progress on key issues after talking about making Rhode Island better – so I asked, what will she do differently? “I think the idea of everyone coming together because we love this state so much and we want it to work for all of us – every single person – that is the mandate for change that I felt from last night,” Foulkes responded, “and I think that by bringing everyone together we can really make change happen.” Foulkes was non-committal on releasing more detailed policy positions ahead of the November election. Asked why she would be more effective at making change than independent Ken Block – who vows to shake up the state – the Democrat said, “I really know how to pull people together. I have the right combination of a real outsider’s lens, but I have also spent my whole life building relationships.”
5. MORALES RISING
The safe play for David Morales would have been to wait until term limits prevented Mayor Smiley from seeking another term. But Morales had the courage of his convictions, a bit like how David Cicilline launched his campaign against Buddy Cianci in February 2002, around the time when Cianci had a 63% approval rating even after the unveiling of Operation Plunder Dome. After his victory this week, Morales vowed to build a Providence for all. The outcome means that it’s probably just a matter of time until the rent stabilization vetoed by Smiley is back on the agenda. But if Morales lands in City Hall after the November election, how will he thread the challenge of delivering services in a perpetually cash-strapped city with the factional divisions within the Democratic Socialists of America? It took reading this recent NYT Mag story to remind me how the RI DSA unendorsed Morales after he voted a few years ago for Joe Shekarchi – an avatar of compromise – for speaker. The unendorsement has since been rescinded. But as the saying goes, it’s easier to run a revolution than a government.
6. REMEMBERING 9/11
In my mind’s eye, I can remember taking a beat to appreciate the late summer weather before pulling open the heavy front door and walking in at 150 Chestnut St., where I was working for The Providence Phoenix on Sept. 11, 2001. An off-site meeting of colleagues from Boston was taking place in a conference room. Word leaked out about the first plane striking the Twin Towers and many of us gathered to watch the horrible news unfold on television. A quarter-century later, 9/11 is remembered as “a turning point in all our lives,” as Dr. Selim Suner, who traveled to Ground Zero from his North Kingstown home to help the wounded, said in an interview with my colleague Luis Hernandez. “It was a different time before then, and it's a different time now,” Suner said. “People who lived through that – I have friends who were near there and had to walk home covered in dust. As Americans, we were sort of protected from those type of events, and 9/11 changed that. It brought it home.” For more on how 9/11 affected life in America, give a listen to this NPR Fresh Air interview with author Richard Beck.
7. GENERAL ASSEMBLY
If the 2026 primary election was an anti-incumbent wave, it did not break on the shore of the Rhode Island legislature. Eight incumbents in the House of Representatives and six in the Senate all cruised to victory, including the dean of the House, Rep. Brian P. Kennedy (D-Hopkinton), first elected in 1988, and Reps. Edith Ajello (D-Providence) and Charlene Lima (D-Cranston), both first elected in 1992. In the family affair of Rhode Island politics, Nicole Jellinek, the wife of outgoing Rep. Jason Knight (D-Barrington), won the primary for his seat, as did Robert E. Craven Jr., for the North Kingstown seat formerly held by his father, Robert Craven. And the conservative League of Rhode Island Businesses, despite devising a new way to funnel more money to legislative candidates, batted 0-9 in trying to reshape the General Assembly. Progressives such as Sens. Sam Bell (D-Providence), Meghan Kallman (D-Pawtucket) and Alana DiMario (D-Narragansett) were among those scoring lopsided wins. LORIB’s Dave Levesque blamed a progressive surge, and he said that his group will be back. DiMario said the outcome shows “that the very cynical approach to run candidates in Democratic primaries who do not uphold or have demonstrated Democratic values was not successful.”
8. MCKEE’S FALL
Gov. McKee realized the dream of lieutenant governors everywhere when he inherited the governor’s office in 2021. He went on to win the office in his own right a year later and showed plenty of fight at age 75 for wanting to stay on the job.
McKee was gracious in conceding defeat and he quickly moved to release a statement Thursday: “To every volunteer, everyone I’ve had the privilege of working with over the years, and my family who has always been by my side, thank you. There are so many of us who believe in the promise of Rhode Island, and who are ready to keep working to make that promise a reality. That is why I am endorsing the full Democratic ticket: Helena Foulkes for Governor, Sabina Matos for Lieutenant Governor, Kim Ahern for Attorney General, James Diossa for General Treasurer, and Gregg Amore for Secretary of State. I am asking every Rhode Islander who supported our campaign to unite behind this team and support them all this November. Thank you, Rhode Island, for the opportunity to serve as your Governor. My family and I couldn’t be more grateful.”
According to elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, McKee was the first elected governor to lose renomination since 2014, and – based on unofficial results – his primary loss was the sixth-worst by margin since WWII.
9. STAYING POWER
Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos proved herself a resilient incumbent, winning a five-way primary race with just under 38% of the vote. Yet Matos also benefited from the large field, since the four other candidates combined to get 62% of the vote – almost twice as much as the incumbent. Newport Councilor Xay Khamsyvoravong, whose future bears watching, placed second, with 26% of the vote. “You helped nearly 1/4 people statewide find me (a candidate with an unusual name at the bottom of the ballot),” he wrote in a thank-you note to his email list. “Our voters were people who, thanks to you, actively sought me out and voted. While not enough votes to secure us a win, that’s remarkable.” Now, the general election tilt between Matos and Republican John Loughlin will come into view, with Loughlin generally being seen as the GOP’s best hope for overcoming a long losing streak in running for state general offices. The Tiverton Republican used his campaign website to unveil a new web-based electricity bill calculator on the day after the primary.
10. THE MELLOR-MAGAZINER MATCHUP
U.S. Rep. Seth Magaziner didn’t waste time after the primary in describing Victor Mellor, the winner of the GOP primary in the Second District, as an extremist. On Thursday, the Democratic congressman staged a news conference near the Statehouse with police who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, including one who was violently attacked by a mob.
Magaziner called Mellor “one of those villains” who was among the rioters “who attacked police and attacked our democracy.” Mellor has called himself a “proud J6er,” although he denies taking part in any violence that day. He crashed Magaziner’s event to push back against the congressman’s message: “I was at the Capitol that day. I did not assault police. I did not use violence. I was not charged with attacking an officer. Anyone who laid hands on a cop was wrong. I condemn it.” Mellor is spending big in his race, campaigning through TV ads, billboards and other means. The challenge for a MAGA candidate like him is how support for President Trump topped out at about 42% in 2024, so getting a winning margin is a big lift. But Mellor could push Magaziner to spend a lot defending his seat. For now, FEC reports show Magaziner with about $1.5 million in his account, and Mellor with about $280,000.
11. STAYING ON THE SCENE
As expected, U.S. Sen. Jack Reed rolled to victory, winning 77% of the vote in a primary race with Connor Burbridge (13%) and Luis Daniel Muñoz (10%). Reed, who would be poised to chair Senate Armed Services if Democrats can retake the Senate in November, will turn 77 that month. He has a lot of company in that age bracket from his fellow New England senators. U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut is 80, as is U.S. Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts (and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is 77). In Maine, U.S. Sens. Angus King is 82 and Susan Collins is 73. U.S. Sen. Jean Shaheen of New Hampshire is 79.
12. ART AND AUTHORITARIANS
Providence painter Jordan Seaberry dropped out of RISD and became a political activist and organizer before later continuing his education. He’s worked in the past for the Nonviolence Institute and was part of a campaign to unshackle pregnant inmates. Seaberry joined me for this week’s episode of One on One to talk about his overlapping roles and related topics. Excerpt: “Artists have always been involved in political movements. The problem is political organizers often involve artists right at the tail end. We always go to, essentially, beautification projects. So artists can make posters, artists can make cooler picket signs or T-shirts, but as organizers, we really struggle to think about how artists can be involved at the strategy table from the beginning. What makes artists so special is they have spent their whole lives figuring out how to communicate with people, how to take the world in and be able to translate it back out to folks. That is such a rare, special gift.”
13. WEEKEND 401
Some suggestions for your weekend.
12. KICKER
Collision of Power: Trump, Bezos and the Washington Post, by former Post editor Marty Baron, is a gripping read about leading the iconic newspaper during a period of dramatic change. First came the takeover by Jeff Bezos, then President Trump’s 2016 victory, the growing visibility of social media, the #MeToo movement and the reckoning caused by the murder of George Floyd. When Baron retired in 2021, he had presided over a time in which the Post regained much of its past swagger. The paper staffed up significantly, with support from Bezos, and it saw dramatic growth in digital subscriptions. The ensuing years at the Post have been marked by crisis, though, and some former staffers fault Bezos for slashing news resources. A new outlet, The Washington Sun, plans to take up some of the slack.
