Former Globe editor Marty Baron’s “Collision of Power: Trump, Bezos and the Washington Post” is a compelling read. Thanks for stopping by. You can follow me through the week on Bluesky, Threads and X. A quick program note: I am (mostly) off next week, so my column will next appear on Sept. 4. Here we go.
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1. STORY OF THE WEEK
Campaigns come and campaigns go, but the precarity of Rhode Island’s economic outlook is durable. The uncertain outlook that emerged this week for Bally’s, the Providence-based gambling and resort giant, offered an unwelcome reminder of the state’s reliance on gambling revenue. In an SEC filing first reported by the Chicago Tribune, Bally’s said that while it was working to address liquidity issues, “the conditions and events raise substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.” Bally’s stock price took a 30% hit, although it has rebounded somewhat since then. The uncertainty facing one of Rhode Island’s relatively few publicly held corporations shows, however, that – as with betting – counting on gambling revenue can be risky business.
Back in 2002, Don Carcieri’s GOP campaign for governor gained support by targeting the “Alpo Relief Act,” a legislative subsidy for greyhound racing at the former Lincoln Park (now known as Twin River). Carcieri’s predecessor as governor, Lincoln Almond, a longtime former U.S. attorney, was a fierce gambling opponent; he warned that once that camel gets its nose under the tent, there’s no turning back. That view looks prescient with the passage of time – and not just in Rhode Island. After the U.S. Supreme Court in 2018 approved expanded sports betting, enticements to wager bombard anyone watching a sports contest on TV. The rise of smart phones put a mini-casino in everyone’s pocket, and sports betting is now a $17 billion business. Meanwhile, a series of transactions involving Bally’s have unfolded in recent years, including sale and lease-back plans for its lucrative casinos in Lincoln and Tiverton.
Politicians like this revenue stream from gambling (and lotteries) since it brings in state revenue without taxing residents, even as critics call it a regressive way to bolster government coffers. In a worst-case scenario for Bally’s, it seems likely some other entity would take over its assets, including the two Rhode Island casinos. But the fact that gambling remains the state’s third-largest revenue source exposes how Ocean State leaders have failed over time to build a more diverse economy.
2. THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR
Gov. Dan McKee tried wrapping himself in a populist mantle during WPRI’s debate on Tuesday, saying he is for the people and repeatedly pointing to Helena Foulkes’ generous compensation at Hudson Bay Company, the former department store holding company she led. Foulkes returned the discussion to the faults she finds with McKee’s job performance – evidence, she said, of the need for a change. In other words, both candidates were on-message and the debate lacked the kind of gaffe or zinger that might shake up the race. It happened on the same day that the Pell Center at Salve Regina University released a poll showing Foulkes maintaining a double-digit lead over McKee. Time is running short in the primary, with less than three weeks until voting ends on Sept. 9, and Foulkes also has a distinct advantage in campaign funds. McKee has responded with a flurry of initiatives – calling for a pause on new license-plate readers (aka Flock cameras); rolling out a new housing dashboard; pledging to act next year on an added pension benefit, a longstanding priority of public sector unions. And the Pell Center poll showed that 22% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided, allowing McKee and his supporters to hope that the incumbent governor has a fighting chance of coming out on top.
3. PROVIDENCE SHOWDOWN
Both Providence Mayor Brett Smiley and Democratic challenger state Rep. David Morales are using asymmetric tactics as they strive for victory. Smiley is leaning on his big cash advantage to run TV ads emphasizing public safety – highlighting Morales’ 2021 remark about defunding the police and Daniel Denvir’s remark about making PVD “a laboratory for municipal socialism.” Morales is eschewing television. The insurgent is instead running more of a grassroots campaign, arguing that he’s more in sync with the economic struggles of Providence residents. Both candidates joined me for separate interviews this week on "One on One." Among my questions: for Smiley – how did this become a close race considering his advantages in incumbency and fundraising? For Morales – how does he answer critics who think he lacks the professional experience to manage a city like Providence?
4. GENERAL ASSEMBLY
One key legislative primary race to watch is the tilt between former Newport City Councilor Angela Lima and state Sen. Dawn Euer (D-Newport). Euer championed the Act on Climate and a litany of groups are supporting her: SEIU, The Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, the Carpenters union, RI Working Families Party, Climate Action Rhode Island, Clean Water Action, Planned Parenthood, Coalition Against Gun Violence, the National Association of Social Workers, the Newport Democratic City Committee, the Jamestown Democratic Town Committee, and the Senate District 13 Democratic Committee. But it’s worth noting that one flank of organized labor is opposing Euer, including the RI AFL-CIO, the RI Laborers’ District Council, and the RI Building and Construction Trades Council.
AFL-CIO President Patrick Crowley was a bit ambiguous in discussing his organization’s support for Lima. He said, “She represents the values that the labor movement holds dear.” In an interview, Crowley said the opposition to Euer is not based on how she expressed a need for more details when the late Senate President Dominick Ruggerio was in declining health. Rather, he said, it’s more about Lima’s “willingness to work with the labor movement.” Euer said her work has been centered in the same values held by organized labor. Via email, she said, “We are stronger together than we are apart and we need to fight together to build a Rhode Island where working people can thrive. I’m proud of the work I’ve done during my time in office and appreciate the trust that the people of Jamestown and Newport have put in me by overwhelmingly sending me back to the Senate for five election cycles.”
5. PVD CITY COUNCIL
It’s not every day that a majority of a legislative body endorses a challenger to a fellow incumbent. But that’s what happened this week when Miguel Martinez Youngs, running in Providence’s Ward 1 against City Councilor John Goncalves, announced the support of eight of 15 current members of the City Council (including the outgoing council president). “It is unusual for elected officials to endorse an incumbent’s opponent, but we trust Miguel Youngs to do what is right for the residents of Ward 1, even when it means challenging insiders and powerful interests like corporate housing developers,” the group said in a statement. Goncalves told Alexandra Leslie the backing for his opponent “is not surprising and all based on politics.” It’s worth noting that Goncalves was widely seen as a swing vote on the rent control ordinance that ultimately fell one vote short of succeeding.
6. THE RACE FOR LG
With the Pell Center poll showing a race within the margin of error between incumbent Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos and Newport Councilor Xay Khamsyvoravong, other races could play an outsized role in determining the outcome. Turnout is expected to be high on primary day in Providence due to the Democratic mayoral race. That could benefit Matos, a former president of the Providence City Council. But another candidate for LG, Sue AnderBois, is also a PVD resident and she can be expected to get a good quantity of the progressive support on the vote-rich East Side.
7. THE RACE FOR AG
After a slow start to the race, the four Democrats running to succeed term-limited attorney general Peter Neronha are frantically racing to boost their chances ahead of the finish. Kim Ahern was the frontrunner in the Pell Center poll with 23% of the support, followed by 13% for Keith Hoffmann, 10% for Joseph Solomon Jr. and 5% for Jason Knight. Knight has turned in strong debate performances, but he has fewer campaign funds than his rivals. Solomon is touting his support from law enforcement. Neronha sent a blast text, calling Hoffmann “the only AG candidate prepared to lead us in that crucial work on day one.” Hoffmann has cited his support from more than 50 national, state and local leaders, and he’s ramping up his criticism of Ahern. Ahern is emphasizing her experience working with a series of AG and she cited support from 38 “local leaders, unions, Democratic organizations, abortion rights groups, women’s rights groups, and LGBTQ+ rights groups.” And she picked up an endorsement from former U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy.
8. CD REPUBLICANS
This column last week (#10) raised the question of whether Vic Mellor’s more ubiquitous approach to the GOP primary in CD2 will give him an edge over Stephen Skoly. The Pell Center poll showed Skoly leading Mellor, 29% to 22%, with a massive 48% undecided at the time of the survey. Meanwhile, the ProJo’s Kathy Gregg reported on how Mellor is largely self-funding his campaign with millions in loans, and Mellor claimed to have an endorsement from Cranston Mayor Ken Hopkins, but Hopkins said that is not the case.
9. RI POLI-MEDIA PEOPLE ON THE MOVE
Kudos and congrats to Rich Luchette, DC-based comms director for much of David Cicilline’s time in Congress, on his nuptials …. Former state Rep. Jay O’Grady (D-Lincoln), who signed off in 2018 after an unexpected personal challenge, is the new policy director in the Rhode Island House of Representatives …. Lawyer Stephen D. Lapatin, who led the government relations practice at Adler Pollock & Sheehan, has joined the team at Advocacy Solutions …. Bob Cormier started last week as the new head of the Rhode Island Life Science Hub …. Former state Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket) has a new gig as executive director for presidential initiatives and strategic partnerships at URI …. Welcome back to Josh Block, campaign strategist for Mayor Smiley and Kim Ahern, who has moved with his better half back to the Ocean State from the People’s Republic of Massachusetts.
10. COMING ATTRACTIONS
Check out our website Monday and listen to our radio for my look at Connor Burbridge’s uphill challenge to U.S. Sen. Jack Reed. Also next week, although I’m mostly on vacation, One on One will feature separate interviews with Gov. Dan McKee and Helena Foulkes making their closing arguments and addressing key issues.
11. KICKER
Thinking back to 2010, I remember that year as a recent high point for the number of debates and forums in the race for governor. If memory serves, there were easily more than 30 ahead of the general election – a seeming contrast to the amount of time it took for a number of local primary races to get rolling. But memory is a funny thing, right? Sixteen years ago, on Aug. 15, I posted a blog post headlined, “The slow burn of RI’s 2010 campaign,” noting how “political junkies have long been anticipating 2010 as a mega-campaign season in Rhode Island. For all of the advance salivating, though, there’s generally not been much in the way of competing campaign commercials or dynamic back-and-forth among high-profile candidates.”
